Latina celebrities and activists march to turn out the vote in Florida. Photo: Gaston De Cardenas/AFP/Getty Images While there were a number of disappointments for Democrats in an otherwise outstanding 2018 midterm elections, perhaps the most surprisingly depressing were the two big statewide elections in the huge battleground state of Florida. In a review of his site’s generally accurate projections of the midterm vote, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver listed 11 races in which all his models were wrong. The third and sixth most surprising were the Florida gubernatorial and Senate races; Nate’s models gave ultimate Republican winner Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott less than a 30 percent probability of victory. The final polling averages at RealClearPolitics were off by 4 percent in the governor’s race and 2.6 percent in the Senate race. This outcome was especially disappointing for Democrats because the solidly favored Gillum could have broken up a Republican redistricting trifecta in a state with a large House delegation. And trends in Florida will matter a lot in 2020; it’s a state Donald Trump must carry if he is to win reelection. It’s not too hard to find the smoking gun in Democratic underperformance in the Florida midterms. Exit poll… Read full this story
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